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French Open 2021 Predictions & Odds: Statistical Analysis of Top 7 Men's Singles Contenders
Countdown to the French Open 2021:
The landmark 125th edition of Roland Garros is all set to take place in Paris from May 30 to June 13 this year.
Sportco analyzes the French Open 2021 predictions and odds of the leading contenders who have a great chance to clinch the prestigious championship.
Meaning of Odds - Odds of +100 on a player means for a $100 bet, a player would win $100.
1) Rafael Nadal
The 13-time French Open champion will be hungry to claim another grand slam on his favorite surface. A title this year in Paris would take Nadal to the top of the grand slam winners list with 21 in his cabinet.
The Spaniard has also won the French Open for the last 4 years in a row which indicates his invincibility.
Todd Woodbridge, a former Australian tennis player said "For Rafa not to win, he has to get an incredibly tough draw that lines up the dangerous players one after the other".
Rafael Nadal's Roland Garros 2021 Draw:
R1: Popyrin, R2: Gaston/Gasquet, R3: Sonego/Norrie, R4: Sinner/Monfils, QF: Rublev/Schwartzman, SF: Djokovic/Federer, and F: Medvedev/Thiem
The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Rafa winning are -112. Fans need to bet $112 on Nadal to win $100.
The stats that give Rafael Nadal a big edge in the French Open are
| Player Name | Rafael Nadal |
| Win-Loss Record in the French Open | 100-2 |
| Win-Loss Record in Finals in Paris | 13-0 |
| % of Return points won on First Serve in Clay in last 1 year | 40.2% (Highest on the ATP Tour) |
| Breakpoints converted | 49.4% (Highest on the ATP Tour) |
| Return Games won | 41.8% (Highest on the ATP Tour) |
2) Novak Djokovic:
Djokovic is a former French Open champion having won the tournament in 2016. The World number 1 has been quite consistent in Roland Garros in the last two years.
He lost a five-set thriller to Thiem in the semifinals in 2019 followed by a straight-set defeat to Nadal in the finals in 2020.
Goran Ivanisevic, the coach of Novak Djokovic has backed him to beat Nadal in the French Open if they end up on the same side of the draw (could clash in the semifinals).
Djokovic's path to Roland Garros 2021 title: R1: Sandgren, R2 Pouille/Cuevas, R3: Humbert, R4: Goffin, QF: Federer, SF: Nadal, and F: Thiem/Tsitsipas
The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Novak Djokovic winning the tournament are +375
Some top stats for Djokovic on Clay are
| Player Name | Novak Djokovic |
| Number of times finished as Runner-up | 4 (2012, 2014, 2015, and 2020) |
| % of Return points won on the First Serve in Clay in last 1 year | 39.9% (Second Best on the ATP Tour behind Nadal) |
| % of Return points won on the Second Serve in Clay in last 1 year | 54% (Third Best on the ATP Tour behind Diego Schwartzman and Nadal) |
3) Stefanos Tsitsipas
A maiden ATP Masters 1000 triumph in Monte Carlo, a runner-up finish in the ATP-500 Barcelona Open followed by a triumph in the ATP-250 Lyon Open, this is the best chance for Tsitsipas to clinch the French Open.
The Greek lost a close five-setter to Djokovic in the semifinals last year in Paris.
Tsitsipas will aim to not lose matches from strong positions as a few inconsistent games have proved to be the turning point in his eight losses this season.
The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Stefanos Tsitsipas winning the tournament are +600
Some splendid stats for Tsitsipas that give him an advantage are
| Player Name | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| % of Points won during First serve on Clay in last 1 year | 73.3% (more than Djokovic - 71.5% and Nadal - 69.7%) |
| % of Service Games won | 84.6% (more than Nadal - 84.2% and Djokovic - 82.2%). |
| Win-Loss Record on Clay in 2021 | 16-3 |
4) Dominic Thiem
Though not in his best form, Thiem can up the ante in Paris having finished here as a runner-up twice (in 2018 and 2019 - lost to Nadal both times).
Dominic Thiem has an inconsistent 9-7 win-loss record in 2021. His one-handed backhand will have to come out firing on all cylinders as he targets another shot at the French Open title.
Thiem's Roland Garros 2021 Draw: R1: Andujar R2: Delbonis/Albot, R3: Fognini/Fucsovics, R4:Ruud/Hurkacz, QF: Zverev/Agut, SF: Medvedev/Tsitsipas, and F: Djokovic/Nadal
The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Dominic Thiem winning the tournament are +800
Know the numbers behind Thiem’s prowess on the red dirt.
| Player Name | Dominic Thiem |
| Best performances in the French Open | 2-time finalist (2018 and 2019) and 2-time semifinalist (2016 and 2017) |
| % of First Serve Points landed on Clay in last 1 year | 65% (Second best on the ATP Tour behind John Isner) |
| % of Points won on Second serve on Clay in the last 1 year | 57.1% (Second best on the ATP Tour behind Nadal - 58%) |
| % of Deciding Sets won on Clay in last 1 year | 80% (More than Nadal - 75%, Djokovic - 55.6%, and Tsitsipas - 42.9%). |
5) Alexander Zverev
Zverev was unstoppable in the Madrid Open where he beat Nadal in the quarterfinals and Thiem in the semifinals (both wins in straight sets each). The German won the ATP-1000 tournament, outlasting the hard-hitting Matteo Berrettini in 3 sets.
However, Alexander Zverev has never crossed the quarterfinal stage at Roland Garros in 5 attempts.
Zverev will depend on his big-serve and cross-court forehand to do the damage in Paris.
The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Alexander Zverev winning the tournament are +1800
Analyzing how Zverev has fared on clay in the last 1 year?
| Player Name | Alexander Zverev |
% of Points won on First Serve | 73.1% (More than Djokovic - 71.5% and Nadal - 69.7%) |
% of Deciding Sets won | 62.5% (More than Djokovic - 55.6% and Tsitsipas - 42.9%) |
| Win-Loss Record in 2021 | 9-3 |
6) Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev has had a fairly consistent clay-court season.
Rublev reached the quarterfinals of the French Open last year and lost to the fifth seed Tsitsipas in straight sets. He also has an impressive 29-8 win-loss record in 2021.
The Russian youngster has this uncanny ability to strike a series of winners.
The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Andrey Rublev winning the tournament are +2500
Evaluating Rublev’s performance on clay this season
| Player Name | Andrey Rublev |
| Win-Loss Record | 9-4 |
| % of Points won on First Serve | 74.4% (more than Tsitsipas - 73.3% Zverev - 73.1%, Thiem - 71.8%, Djokovic - 71.5%, and Nadal - 69.7%) |
| % of Deciding Sets won | 66.7% (more than Zverev - 62.50%, Djokovic - 55.6%, and Tsitsipas - 42.9%). |
7) Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud is in a rich vein of form after winning the ATP-250 Geneva Open last week (beat Shapovalov in straight sets in the finals).
Ruud has crashed out of the third round in his last two French Open appearances in 2019 (beaten by Federer in straight sets) and 2020 (lost to Thiem in straight sets).
Casper Ruud's draw for the Roland Garros 2021: R1 - Paire, R2: Marchzak / Cazaux, R3: Hurkacz / Fokina, R4: Thiem / Fognini, QF: Zverev/Agut, SF: Tsitsipas, and F: Nadal / Djokovic
The French Open 2021 predictions and odds of Casper Ruud winning the tournament are +5000
Looking back at Ruud’s run on the red dirt in 2021
| Player Name | Casper Ruud |
| Win-Loss Record | 15-4 |
| % of Points won on First Serve | 71.3% (more than Nadal - 69.7%) |
| % of Deciding Sets won | 76.9% (more than Nadal - 75% and Zverev - 62.50%) |
| % of Tiebreaks won | 76.9% (more than Tsitsipas - 75% and Nadal - 66.7%) |
French Open Predictions & Odds Final Table:
| French Open 2021 | Predictions | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Nadal | Winner | -115 |
| Novak Djokovic | Semi-Finals | +375 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Finalist | +600 |
| Dominic Thiem | Semi-Finals | +800 |
| Alexander Zverev | Quarter-Finals | +1800 |
| Andrey Rublev | Quarter-Finals | +2500 |
| Casper Ruud | Round 4 | +5000 |
Do share with us your take on our predictions and odds for the French Open 2021. Stay tuned ahead of an action-packed two weeks at Roland Garros 2021.
Featured Image Credits - Getty Images
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